Saturday 22 March 2014

Wednesday 19 March 2014



Will skies be clear over eastern Ontario during the Regulus occultation Thursday morning?

It seems extremely unlikely, with primarily overcast skies following passage of a cold front, and some indications of the dry intrusion (caused by subsidence following a cold front) possibly causing thinning clouds in some regions (mainly the south side of Lake Ontario). Charts below show the moisture and vertical uplift at the 700 hPa level at UTC 06:00 (EDT 02:00) that strongly hint at rich moisture and upward motion that support mid-level cloud formation rather than dissipation near the Kingston area. The output from several different models supports the same idea and a chart for simulated radar reflectivity also predicts precipitation at that time. The dry intrusion and partial cloud clearing might develop anywhere, even briefly, following the cold front, but the model forecast charts below strongly hint at cloudy skies near the occultation predicted path.




Monday 17 March 2014



It looks like some cloudiness will be visible at mid-levels, due to a large region of mid-level moisture moving eastward over the Great Lakes region ahead of a warm front. The bright moonlight may give the impression of a clear sky, but enough cloudiness may develop to give the appearance of a partly cloudy sky, especially later in the evening.


Saturday 15 March 2014

Will skies be clear Saturday evening over southern Ontario?

It looks like clearing skies are likely during the evening with scattered low clouds diminishing, as well as a small possibility of jetsream-level cirrus clouds over some regions.
The images below show forecast humidity at the 850 hPa level that may appear as scattered low clouds, and jetsream winds over southern Ontario that may have some cirrus clouds that could appear over some regions during the evening.

Monday 10 March 2014



Will skies be clear over southern Ontario Monday night?
It looks like partly clear skies, with bright moonlight, will give the appearance of clear skies. Some mid-level humidity, especially during early evening, will probably cause some visible cloudiness and some jetstream-level moisture will probably also appear as cirrus clouds. The charts below show the moisture at the 700 hPa level moving eastward from southern Ontario during the evening as well as the position of the high-level jet.


Thursday 6 March 2014



Will skies be clear over southern Ontario Thursday evening?
It looks like mostly clear skies are expected. Some moisture at low and mid-levels, as well as lifting motion over southwestern Ontario, might cause some visible cloudiness during the evening (over southwestern Ontario), and some jetstream level cloudiness (visible over southern Ontario on satellite imagery during Thursday) may also be visible Thursday night. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are expected.


Wednesday 5 March 2014



Will skies be clear Wednesday evening over southern Ontario?
It looks like some low clouds during the early evening will dissipate and disappear within several hours after sunset over most regions, except for more persistent low-level cloudiness near western Lake Ontario. Other than the lingering low-level moisture near Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario, the flow of dry and clear air from the north-northeast will provide clear skies over most regions. Some jetstream-level moisture is forecast to move over southwestern Ontario overnight but probably won’t cause any visible high cloudiness.

The chart below shows the forecast amount of humidity at the level of low clouds at UTC 24:00 but by the end of twilight, low clouds may have disappeared over most locations (except near western Lake Ontario).