Wednesday 19 March 2014



Will skies be clear over eastern Ontario during the Regulus occultation Thursday morning?

It seems extremely unlikely, with primarily overcast skies following passage of a cold front, and some indications of the dry intrusion (caused by subsidence following a cold front) possibly causing thinning clouds in some regions (mainly the south side of Lake Ontario). Charts below show the moisture and vertical uplift at the 700 hPa level at UTC 06:00 (EDT 02:00) that strongly hint at rich moisture and upward motion that support mid-level cloud formation rather than dissipation near the Kingston area. The output from several different models supports the same idea and a chart for simulated radar reflectivity also predicts precipitation at that time. The dry intrusion and partial cloud clearing might develop anywhere, even briefly, following the cold front, but the model forecast charts below strongly hint at cloudy skies near the occultation predicted path.




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