Will skies be clear over eastern Ontario
during the Regulus occultation Thursday morning?
It seems extremely unlikely, with primarily
overcast skies following passage of a cold front, and some indications of the
dry intrusion (caused by subsidence following a cold front) possibly causing
thinning clouds in some regions (mainly the south side of Lake Ontario). Charts
below show the moisture and vertical uplift at the 700 hPa level at UTC 06:00
(EDT 02:00) that strongly hint at rich moisture and upward motion that support mid-level
cloud formation rather than dissipation near the Kingston area. The output from
several different models supports the same idea and a chart for simulated radar
reflectivity also predicts precipitation at that time. The dry intrusion and
partial cloud clearing might develop anywhere, even briefly, following the cold
front, but the model forecast charts below strongly hint at cloudy skies near
the occultation predicted path.
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